Polymarket Scanner

AI-powered probability estimation. Kelly-optimal sizing. Weather arbitrage detection. Paper trading with full P&L tracking.

Markets Scanned
Opportunities
$1K
Paper Bankroll
0.25
Quarter Kelly
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Kelly Position Sizer

⚡ Calculate Optimal Bet Size

Enter values and click Calculate
Strategy Overview

🌡️ Weather Arbitrage

Polymarket resolves by AIRPORT stations (LaGuardia, Love Field), not city centers. We pull Open-Meteo ensemble (GFS+ECMWF+ICON+JMA) for the exact station. 3-8°F gap = free edge.

🧠 4-Check Decision Framework

1) Base rate historical data. 2) News in last 6h. 3) Whale wallet positions. 4) Crowd cognitive errors. Need 3/4 to pass before sizing.

📊 Kelly Criterion (Quarter)

f* = (p×b - q) / b, then ×0.25 for safety. Never bet >25% of bankroll. Negative EV = $0 bet. Proven mathematically optimal for long-run growth.

🚪 Exit Strategy

Take profit at 85% of move. Exit on 3× volume spike. Kill stale positions (24h, <2% change). Top wallets capture 73% of max profit and move on.

Paper Trading Stats
0
Total Trades
Win Rate
$0
Total P&L
$1,000
Bankroll