AI-powered probability estimation. Kelly-optimal sizing. Weather arbitrage detection. Paper trading with full P&L tracking.
| Market | YES Price | Liquidity | Hours Left | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click "Scan Now" to fetch live Polymarket data | ||||
Polymarket resolves by AIRPORT stations (LaGuardia, Love Field), not city centers. We pull Open-Meteo ensemble (GFS+ECMWF+ICON+JMA) for the exact station. 3-8°F gap = free edge.
1) Base rate historical data. 2) News in last 6h. 3) Whale wallet positions. 4) Crowd cognitive errors. Need 3/4 to pass before sizing.
f* = (p×b - q) / b, then ×0.25 for safety. Never bet >25% of bankroll. Negative EV = $0 bet. Proven mathematically optimal for long-run growth.
Take profit at 85% of move. Exit on 3× volume spike. Kill stale positions (24h, <2% change). Top wallets capture 73% of max profit and move on.